Baseball America and Fangraphs Prospect Rankings

The Original Jackson 5ive still makes up the bulk of the lists, but Mr. Zuumball is now at the top

Baseball America
 

  1. Mike Zunino
  2. Taijuan Walker
  3. Danny Hultzen
  4. James Paxton
  5. Nick Franklin
  6. Brandon Maurer
  7. Carter Capps
  8. Stefen Romero
  9. Brad Miller
  10. Victor Sanchez


Fangraphs

  1. Mike Zunino
  2. Taijuan Walker
  3. Danny Hultzen
  4. Nick Franklin
  5. James Paxton
  6. Carter Capps
  7. Brandon Maurer
  8. Brad Miller
  9. Stefen Romero
  10. Victor Sanchez
  11. Patrick Kivlehan
  12. Gabriel Guerrero
  13. Tyler Pike
  14. Stephen Pryor
  15. Timothy Lopes


My commentary:

  • That was fast.  I thought I might be ahead of the curve in placing Zunino at No. 1.  So much for the element of surprise.  That’s OK, though.  When a guy comes right out of college and instantly shows leadership, power and plate skills, what can you do?  Of course, moderately wobbly years from The Big 3 make it easier to put Mr. Zuumball at the top of the list.
  • Brandon Maurer was not one of the Original Jackson 5ive (which was Walker, Hultzen, Paxton, Pryor and Capps), but looking at these lists, it appears that, retroactively, we’d have to make it the “Jackson 6ix,” which, obviously, has no zip to it at all.  I’m not down on Maurer (except in relative terms), but I don’t have him up that high.
  • (As we’ve noted here, the actual sixth member of the Jackson 5ive was Randy Jackson … but not that Randy Jackson.  No offense to either Randy, or Maurer, but we’re sticking with our Original 5ive.)
  • Paxton “has a ceiling close to that of Hultzen …” (Fangraphs).  True, it may be “close” but that doesn’t rule out the likelihood that it’s higher (which it is).
  • On the other hand, it’s good to see Fangraphs offer some affirmation of my high regard for three of the Teen Titans: Gaby, Nephew of Vlad, Pike and Lopes.
  • Memo to readers: Don’t fear the stall-out year (when the circumstances are right).  In other words: Vintage Vinnie can still make these guys look wrong.
  • Kivlehan at No. 11?  That’s just showin’ off (I think).  (I’d be happy to be proven wrong.)
  • Not yet on The Morbanwagon?  That’s all right.  Plenty of good seats still available.  It's always cooler to be an early-adopter.
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The Top Ten Seattle Mariners Prospects
by Baseball Prospectus

1. RHP Taijuan Walker
2. C Mike Zunino
3. LHP Danny Hultzen
4. IF Nick Franklin
5. LHP James Paxton
6. RHP Brandon Maurer
7. LHP Luiz Gohara
8. RHP Victor Sanchez
9. LHP Tyler Pike
10. IF/OF Stefen Romero

Experience with premature rankings of Guillermo Pimental and Phillips Castillo should give pause, but is it possible Luiz Gohara is as good or better than Sanchez? Wow!

1

Hot off the digital press!

Gohara is interesting ... but No. 7 overall is certainly premature.  Maybe they know something we don't, but that's awfully high before he even throws a professional pitch.

I'm quite surprised, but thrilled, to see Pike is already a "consensus" top prospect.

I guess we'll see, but Miller is a huge omission in my book.

2

I have gone through carefully, and have determined (as have others) that Capps and Pryor both will still be eligible for rookie status at the start of the year.  Therefore, they are still eligible for "prospect" lists (at least using the criteria that most use).

I don't know what's behind the BP paywall, so I don't know if they considered Capps and Pryor and chose not to list them, or excluded them because they do have a fair amount of MLB time, just not enough to lose rookie status (September MLB time doesn't count; Pryor had an extended stint on the DL, which doesn't count; Capps didn't come up until August).

Just so you know.

3

the BP lists this year have two little bonus sections after the top 10 - three guys on the rise (usually younger upsidey guys) and three "close to helping" (what it says - guys on the cusp of the majors - tend to get a lot of relievers and utility types here.) they put both capps and pryor in the latter bucket. so they were considered eligible but didn't make the top 10. seems wrong to me but what can you do. prospect value of relievers is all over the map depending on who you ask

4

If you have that kind of a category, I can't really blame them for putting Capps and Pryor there.

I do get the notion that valuing relievers is difficult (see how Brian Moran was left off the 40-man but also unpicked in the Rule 5 draft), but these two are virtually certain to be high-leverage late-inning guys in the majors.

Thanks for chiming in, wily mo! 

5

My own thought is that Miller should be just ahead of Romero, or A&B with him, and they should be with, or just behind Maurer. But seeing Pike and Sanchez ranked is a pleasant surprise (since it could have been Pimental or Ogando or some such that have no real accomplishments to go with the talent). The only one that really looks out of place is Gohara, but there's apparently some praise for him behind the wall. My fear is that the praise is from the same people that praised Pimental and ignored Guerrero.

6

What was it that would transform Gohara from "very interesting international signing" to "ranked ahead of Sanchez, Pike, Miller and Romero"?

I know not.

Actually, if there's a raw sleeper guy that I would toss a high ranking to just for the heck of it, it would be Edwin Diaz, who was wayyyy outperformed by Pike, but did have 9.5 K/9.  Or Seon-Gi Kim, who had the best single game of any pitcher in the whole system, including Paxton (6.0 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 13 K ... Strasburgian).

***

Don't give up yet on Pimentel and Castillo.  We've just witnessed Julio Morban come out of that same situation with a monster year at age 20.  But, yes, they shouldn't have been in the top 10 at 18, and Morban probably shouldn't have, either.

But we finally have enough real solid prospects that we don't have to reach for teenagers to fill out the top 10 anymore.

But if they were trying to generate discussion and clicks, well they got some, didn't they?

7

Spec - I know you're probably working on your Spec 66 now, but to preempt it a bit, who do you think are the most likely fast movers in the system - a la Seager - the "pre-packaged, ready-made, just-add-water" types as you so aptly put it? Or to put it another way, the NCAA Div 1 types that "settle-in" to pro ball and then move quickly. Do you agree with my assessment in an SSI comment that Landry looks poised to do it? How about Marder? Considering your comment on Kivlehan, how likely do you think it is that he can move up quickly, given all the indications that he "settled in" as the season progressed in Everett?

8

Assume you mean other than Zunino, who seems to be as "ready-made" as you can get.

-- Brad Miller looks like a statistical clone of Seager, except that he plays short

-- Everyone else may have abandoned ship, but I still view Catricala as the hitter closest to major league success.  Stall-out years are more common that people think.

-- Like you, I'm a Landry believer.  If he can play CF in the majors, then he's got great potential.  I wish he walked more, but he makes up for it with zip in his bat.  Not sure he makes it as a corner, though.  He and Marder will be closely watched at AA.

-- Kivlehan is just an odd duck due to his history.  He got much better as the year went along, but he's got a loooong way to go in my book.

9

By the bye, Gabe Guerrero, Edwin Diaz, and Jordan Shipers are mentioned along with Miller, Pryor and Capps in the supplemental analysis of the Ms system (got a gift sub to BP for Xmas). Looks like Mr. Parks did a pretty good job going through the system; but I'm now fascinated by Gohara - could Sanchez and Gohara BOTH be the real deal at 17? Looks like Engle left some parting gifts!

10

Shipers gets a fair amount of love, but I'm much higher on Landazuri, based on what they've done so far.

We'll obviously keep a close eye on Gohara..

 

11

Yes, but Pries is two years older and played major-college ball at a high level, so we can't judge too much from the fact that he was strong in the low minors.

13

Spec - hope this is O.K. - but I like to see how different sites rank the Ms prospects. So having one place to see them may be helpful to others. They still need to go to the sites for the commentary and vids.

To keep this thread alive as the Rankings thread, I found some other lists up from sites that have a good rep (Bullpen Banter is Conor Dowley's current gig). These sites have overlapping staff, but the commentary is different, and they have some good video clips for most, but not all, of the main prospects.
www.bullpenbanter.com
www.mlbdirt.com

Bullpen Banter

1. Taijuan Walker
2. Danny Hultzen
3. Mike Zunino
4. Nick Franklin
5. James Paxton
6. Carter Capps
7. Victor Sanchez
8. Brad Miller
9. Brandon Maurer
10. Stephen Pryor
11. Stefan Romero
12. Joe DeCarlo
13. Tyler Pike
14. Martin Peguero
15. Leon Landry

additional mention

Gabriel Guerrero
Chris Taylor
Guillermo Pimentel

MLB Dirt

1.Taijuan Walker
2. Mike Zunino
3. Danny Hultzen
4. Nick Franklin
5.James Paxton
6. Brad Miller
7. Victor Sanchez
8. Carter Capps
9. Brandon Maurer
10. Stefan Romero
11. Tyler Pike
12. Stephen Pryor
13. Joseph DeCarlo
14. Jack Marder
15. Edwin Diaz
16. Leon Landry

14

Keep 'em coming.

-- Everyone likes Maurer more than me, but that's fine.  I'm glad to see Pike right there with him.

-- Maybe at some point I will be the only person in the world who is still writing about Vinnie Catricala, but so be it.

-- I love the Chris Taylor honorable mention.

-- Except for Martin Peguero not really showing anything yet (and apparently being moved off shortstop), I can't quibble too much.  People are converging on the same names more or less.

15

I, too, think there's a good chance Vinnie turns it around - in fact I think that he started to in the AFL. Granted, those pitchers weren't consistent AAA quality. But the talent has been there; I don't think he lost it. As you say, stall years aren't uncommon. If he turns it around, that's another chip in the pot.

As to Smoak, pushed as fast as he was, I'm inclined to see if the last month's hitting with the two-handed stroke was his turn-around. Even if he has to start at AAA to make the initial roster work, I'm looking forward with some interest to see him groove in his swing.

Ackley, as I noted in another comment, is not that far below where other perennial all-stars were at the same point in their careers. We fans are a tough crowd, but I think he's not far away from a breakthrough, either.

I do think that a mature power hitter will help the others. In that sense, the signings of Bay and Ibanez and acquiring Morales make sense to me. If you look at it in that light, if Ibanez and Morales can help teach Montero how to DH on the days he doesn't catch, and these other guys can pick it up to their promise, things may look much better by mid-year.

Tacoma, with an infield of Catricala, Franklin/Miller, Romero, and Smoak from left to right, an outfield of Thames, Almonte, and whoever, and Zunino catching a rotation of Hultzen, Paxton, Maurer, Fernandez, and Walker or Carraway, is going to be scary-good. Then by mid-year, Landry and Marder start the next wave. Absolute joy to contemplate.

16

This is another smaller site that has a good collection of vids of prospects; more of a clearinghouse than an authoritative scouting site. Nonetheless, their rankings are interesting. They go 20 deep, which also allows for some different names to be brought up. Very little discussion, mostly links to stats and vids.

www.mlbprospectportal.com

1. Taijuan Walker
2. Mike Zunino
3. Danny Hultzen
4. Nick Franklin
5. James Paxton
6. Brad Miller
7. Stefan Romero
8. Carter Capps
9. Victor Sanchez
10. Brandon Maurer
11. Stephen Pryor
12. Erasmo Ramirez
13. Timothy Lopes
14. Gabriel Guerrero
15. Tyler Pike
16. Vinnie Catricala
17. Chance Ruffin
18. Jabari Blash
19. Francisco Martinez
20. Guillermo Pimentel

While I might put Marder, DeCarlo, Landry, Diaz, or Taylor on in place of the last three, it again shows the depth of the Ms system.

17

Using Sickels system of ranking, this is how I see the Ms system -

A
Taijuan Walker
Mike Zunino

A-
Danny Hultzen
James Paxton
Gabriel Guerrero
Victor Sanchez

B+
Nick Franklin
Brad Miller
Stefan Romero
Carter Capps

B
Erasmo Ramirez
Brandon Maurer
Stephen Pryor
Jack Marder
Leon Landry
Carson Smith
Anthony Fernandez
Tyler Pike
Timothy Lopes
Joe DeCarlo

B-
Julio Morban
Vinnie Catricala
Ji-Man Choi
Chris Taylor
Isaiah Yates
Chance Ruffin
Patrick Kivlehan
John Hicks
Marcus Littlewood
Luiz Gohara (by rep only)

C+
Carlos Triunfel
Yoervis Medina
Daniel Paolini
James Jones
Brian Moran
Bobby LaFromboise
Francisco Martinez
Jordan Shipers
Stephen Landazuri
Seon-Gi Kim
Jordan Pries
Edwin Diaz
Kyle Hunter
Matt Brazis
Dario Pizzano
Rich Poythress
Gabrial Franca
Filipe Burin

C
Steven Proscia
Taylor Ard
Logan Bawcom
Andrew Carraway
Dylan Unsworth
Mario Martinez
Forrest Snow
Jamodrick McGruder
Martin Peguero
Guillermo Pimental
Danny Almonte
Phillips Castillo
Jabari Henry
Jabari Blash
Cavan Cohoes
Josh Corrales

Order of names within levels is not firm

So, Spec - whaddayou think? Any egregious errors or omissions? Think I should post it when Sickels opens it up for the Mariners preliminary discussion?

18

Of course you should chime in with Sickels.

At first glance, the only omission I note is Mike McGee.

My guess is that Sickels will have most of your guys a notch or two below, grade-wise, but probably similar names.

Keep it up, Bat

19

This is for anyone who wants to chime in - I'm doing this to deepen my own understanding of the Ms system, not as a vanity project. Gordon, thirteen, anyone, wanna weigh in?

After looking at Sickel's lists for years, I think my A, A-, and B+ grades are pretty consistent with the type of guys he's given these grades in the past, including some of the listed guys, even if it looks aggressive. The Ms system is now at the level of systems like Toronto which had 8 B+ or better in previous years. Sanchez and Guerrero are obviously reaches, but the rest, I think, could be justified. When you get to B and B-, there are obviously too many.

If I take the C and call them Others, C+ make C, and re-sort the B/B-, who would you consider the true 'B' 'spects and who would you call B- or C+? Which of the B/B- group doesn't belong at all? Spec, where would you put Mike McGee, i.e., which guys should he group with (since actual ranking is beyond me).

Spec - I know you're working on your Spec 66 (or 88), so I hope this helps rather than hurts if we get a discussion going now.

20

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malcontent: The referenced articles: http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2009/05/pitchfx_detecti.php http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2012042 min 41 sec ago
malcontent: Also, I remember two articles, one about Milton Bradley and one about Jose Bautista, regarding their famous conflicts with umpires, and both those articles coming to the conclusion that neither player was being better or worse treated than the average batter, and that both players had complained on occasions when their was no mistake made.47 min 47 sec ago
SABR Matt: They can't afford to be "urgent" about their roster moves yet other than the obvious issue with not calling up Franklin to replace the rotting corpse that is Robert Andino. Most of the other moves we'd like to see them make from a purely emotional perspective there are reasons why it may not be prudent to actually make in the real world. I think Z's roster building in the offseason was a textbook example of being TOO urgent, rather than not urgent enough.48 min 24 sec ago
malcontent: And we have very little about manager relations with umpires. Has there ever been a study to see if more managers get better calls after being tossed from a game? I imagine some of the umpires might actually be vindictive and call worse zones for the complaining manager more likely than umpires being embarrassed into calling a fairer game.50 min 40 sec ago
malcontent: They also DFA'd Kameron Loe 2 weeks into the season.58 min 9 sec ago
phxterry: Matt - Doing nothing may well cost GMZ his job, if 81 wins is required for his survival and the M's end up with, say 74-76. But he doesn't show any urgency to fix any of the other problems that are more clearly fixable, so why would he do anything about this one? IMO, at a minimum, Wedgie should be in ump's faces regulaly, say once every 2 weeks with different crews, and get tossed to show his players that he is standing up for them & to let the umps know that someone at least saw their bad calls. The called third strike on Morse to end the game in NY last week was a perfect opportunity. Go blast the umps when the game just ended - free shot at one of them after a horrible call. But again, I see no evidence of urgency in anything this organization does, with the exception of getting Harang to replace Beavan.1 hour 16 min ago
SABR Matt: I don't know that there's much the Mariners can do about the umpires and get away with it politically. You can't go to the league and gripe about it because you need the league to be in your camp on other disputes and there's no clear and overwhelming evidence that the umpires are knowingly biasing the zone against Seattle. The data says we're jobbed more than any team in the big leagues, but the league and the umpire union could argue that that is a result of bad catching or bad luck. You can't really file a lawsuit because you have to show damages and it's not clear that the losses hurt the Mariners financially in a clear way. You can't take up a grievance against the umpires union directly because the league has rules against one team causing trouble in that manner. And you can't just speak to the press about it because you won't have any friends amongst the other owners if you air your dirty laundry on national TV. So what can you really do?1 hour 29 min ago
phxterry: Correction: Difference between 20-25 & 25-20.1 hour 43 min ago
phxterry: Fourth Memo from the Accountability Dept: Jemanji has identified five (5) games that blown ball/strike calls have cost the M's dearly. 5 wins turned into losses are the difference between 20-25 & 25-2. Arguably, umpire bias is the most important cause of the M's losing season. Do we have any evidence that the M's Brain Trust is doing anything about this? We know Wedgie is not - he's been tossed from only 1 game. He NEVER leaves the comfort of the dugout during games. To my knowledge, he never brings umpire bias up in post-game interviews. Has GMZ ever mentioned it? Honest question: Is anybody aware that the M's are doing anything, literally anything, on any level, to counter-act this bias that has wrecked their season? I am not. And we can can be darn sure that this bias is not going away by itself. Imagine if Mark Cuban were owner of this team, watching game after game flushed by biased umpires. Would he sit still and just take it?1 hour 44 min ago
phxterry: Third Memo from the Accountability Dept: A third asset - Jesus Montero - for whom the M's gave a top-flight young starting pitcher (who is now throwing 95 mph and ready for re-hab), had (at least) 3 known problems that needed attention in the off-season: 1) his running/agility 2) catching defense 3) hitting. In 2013: 1) his running/agility have not improved, to my eye, 2) hids catching defense has gotten worse, to my eye, and 3) his hitting has definitely gotten worse. It's passing the buck for the M's management to say Montero is out-of-shape, that his work ethic is poor, yadda yadda. If the M's Brain Trust (loosely used term) was aware of all these weaknesses in ST, then why did they structure their entire approach to 2013 relying on an un-reliable, lazy kid? Why didn't they send Montero down to AAA to straighten himself out and get 2 Kelly Shoppach's? And if they couldn't tell in ST that he hadn't improved, are they qualified to hold the positions they hold?2 hours 11 min ago
SABR Matt: On those two larger points, I definitely agree, Terry...there's something not right about how the4 players are pursuing their professional development in Seattle. The number of players who are doing things independently in this org. seems unusually high...Franklin's eating binge, Saunders' pool floaters and rubber bands, Seager's Florida training workshops, Ackley's swing (mis)coaching...I would argue that players in Seattle are not happy with their player development team if they are this frequently acting without support from the club.2 hours 14 min ago
phxterry: Second Memo from the Accountability Dept: Another asset - Nick Franklin - also potentially worth $75-100M, embarks on an eating program in the off-season without any apparent knowledge or concurrence of the M's Brain(less?) Trust, and is immediately castigated for said eating program when ST starts. For all we know, the failure to bring up Franklin right now may be the Organization's way of punishing him for his dietary sins & making sure he knows his proper place. I have worked in lots of organizations -- failures on the magnitude of these 2 would have had heads rolling in all the well-run organizations for which I have worked. Only the screwed up ones would have not enforced accountability for such large mistakes.2 hours 27 min ago
phxterry: Memo from the Accountability Dept: The M's have an asset in the form of Ackley that is potentially worth, say, at least $75-100M, if he succeeds to his potential as the #2 pick in a rich draft. Right now he is failing miserably and on track to be worth, literally, pennies on the dollar. Yet Ackley was sent away last off-season to work out his swing problems on his own, and he showed up at spring training with his stance and swing so screwed up that the changes just initiated had to be scrapped 41 days into the season. Now he is trying to change his swing mid-season - good luck with that unless he is sent down. Who ultimately is held accountable for this egregious failure in the management of an asset worth millions? Nobody ...... because that's how failing organizations are run.2 hours 29 min ago
DaddyO: Or, is all this moot and we just need to be more patient?2 hours 36 min ago
DaddyO: Have we assumed that drafting talented young hitters is sufficient to the need? Did Jack assume that Milwaukee's ability to develop young hitters existed in most every organization? Was the success of his uber-skill dependent on another skill present in Milwaukee but not in Seattle?2 hours 37 min ago
DaddyO: How does one transform an organizational weakness into a strength, or at least a non-weakness? Might it take longer than the "7 years" Jack fingered as the time when rebuilding efforts will take full effect? Do we even now have the right people / philosophy in place in the organization to accomplish this? Or have we squandered the first five years by failing to address this problem? Inquiring minds want to know. I don't know.2 hours 39 min ago
DaddyO: IF (again capitalized) Jack's rebuild founders, it will be largely because of the predicament.2 hours 42 min ago
DaddyO: So IF the M's turn out to be incapable of systematically developing hitters (an assumption backed by their history), are they perhaps pursuing a course that may be theoretically good but for them actually bad? If your track record suggests you have trouble developing hitters (Seager being an exception, though even he has not broken out into uber-stardom), then why are you building your whole organizational philosophy around drafting young hitters and developing them so you don't have to pay for already-developed hitters? (Mind you, I capitalized the "IF" for a reason, the assumption has clearly not been demonstrated.)2 hours 43 min ago
rick82: How come your fun facts are rarely fun, Terry?2 hours 55 min ago
SABR Matt: No, Terry...I'm not sure I believe they do. I know one thing...the instant we give up on Ackley, he'll go to the Braves or Red Sox or someone and suddenly be Pedroia's evil twin.3 hours 33 min ago
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