Question Time: Is Brad Miller "Kyle Seager 2.0"?

A: Actually, they're almost TOO similar

 

A bit late, but another "Question Time."  Back on April 23, Jon W. asked for  comparison of Kyle Seager and Brad Miller: "are they as similar as they seem?"

And the answer is: yes, you have zeroed right on it.  In fact, their minor-league numbers are so similar it's like they planned it that way.

So let's take a look!

Both guys were drafted out of the ACC where both had solid careers.  Seager signed more quickly after the draft, and so had more playing time in his post-college, age-21 season.  On the surface, Miller's 14-game cameo looks more impressive than Seager's 44-game introduction.

 

  G PA AB H 2b 3b HR BB K BA OBP SLG OPS
Seager 2009 44 186 161 42 8 0 1 22 21 .261 .344 .329 .673
Miller 2011 14 59 53 22 4 1 0 4 9 .415 .458 .528 .986

 

When you go to our "Spectometer" stats, however, it is Seager who looks better.

[As always, the more colored boxes, the better, and you want the "Three Numbers" at the end to be over 100.]

It turns out that most of Miller's OPS was generated by singles, which our analysis treats as a more-or-less "neutral" event.  Seager gets credit for his very-high walk rate, and very low strikeout rate, giving him a strong "Plate Skills Index."  Miller doesn't get that, but, with just 59 PAs, you can't really conclude anything from his age-21 season.

 

  HR/PA BB/PA XBH+BB/PA ISO K/PA PI +/- PSI Prod Comp
Benchmark .043 .085 .190 .200 .200 .300 +1.50 100 100 100
Seager 2009 .005 .118 .167 .068 .113 .395 +3.07 116 80 96
Miller 2011 .000 .068 .153 .113 .153 .379 -1.10 74 85 59

        

When we move to their age-22 seasons, things start to look kind of eerie.

 

  G PA AB H 2b 3b HR BB K BA OBP SLG OPS
Seager 2010 135 643 557 192 40 3 14 71 94 .345 .419 .503 .921
Miller 2012 137 643 557 186 40 7 15 74 105 .334 .410 .512 .922

 

Freakishly, they had the exact same number of plate appearances, the exact same number of at-bats, the exact same number of doubles (40!), and their OPS was within one point of each other.

The main difference was that Miller got promoted and played 40 games at Jackson, while Seager was in High Desert for the entire year.  Miller had a few more triples and struck out just a bit more.  But, my goodness, you really couldn't find two more similar hitting lines if you tried to orchestrate it.

So let's go to the "Spectometer" stats.

 

  HR/PA BB/PA XBH+BB/PA ISO K/PA PI +/- PSI Prod Comp
Benchmark .043 .085 .190 .200 .200 .300 +1.50 100 100 100
Seager 2010 .022 .110 .199 .158 .146 .317 +3.22 117 104 121
Miller 2012 .023 .115 .212 .178 .163 .298 +3.30 118 110 128

 

This time, the additional analysis yields the same conclusion.  Miller's extra triples gave him a bit of an ISO advantage, which shows up in the "Production Index," but, outside of that, Miller's 2012 rates as more-or-less an exact copy of Seager's 2010.

Both produced a bunch of extra-base hits and walks (which is what we look for), both had an ISO higher than their K% (what I call "Vlad-itude"), and both showed a strong likelihood of generating a high OBP in light of their Plate Skills: either drawing walks or hitting the ball hard and avoiding strikeouts.

Moving on, then, to age-23 seasons, which, for Seager, was the year he got called up, and, for Miller, is this year.

 

  G PA AB H 2b 3b HR BB K BA OBP SLG OPS
Seager 2011 90 416 372 124 33 3 7 37 50 .333 .399 .495 .894
Miller 2013 24 101 90 25 4 1 4 10 21 .278 .356 .478 .834

 

And the "Spectometer" table:

 

  HR/PA BB/PA XBH+BB/PA ISO K/PA PI +/- PSI Prod Comp
Benchmark .043 .085 .190 .200 .200 .300 +1.50 100 100 100
Seager 2011 .017 .089 .192 .162 .120 .296 +2.57 111 110 121
Miller 2013 .040 .099 .188 .200 .208 .319 -0.01 100 103 103

 

What we saw from Seager in that year was a continuation of his success as a guy capable of hitting the ball with authority without striking out a lot, and that was writing his ticket to the majors.

For Miller, there is a bit of change.  His HR% is up (thus also bumping up his ISO), but his K% has gone up with it.  It's too soon to tell if that is a change in approach or just noise.  Either way, Miller's numbers are still showing as someone capable of holding his own at the plate in the majors, even if not a middle infielder (which, of course, he is).

All of which doesn't mean that Miller would step in and have Seager's immediate success.  Dustin Ackley had even better numbers at higher levels (but let's hope he's finally figuring it out: 13 hits in his last 10 games).

But clearly Miller has similar kinds of indicators of MLB success, particularly for a shortstop.

 

Comments

Steals:

Seager 09: 4 SB, 2 CS

Miller 11: 1 SB, 0 CS

 

Seager 10: 13 SB, 12 CS

Miller 12: 23 SB, 7 CS

 

Seager 11: 11 SB, 6 CS

Miller 13: 3 SB, 1 CS

 

So Miller is definitely more accomplished on the basepaths than Seager.  And, obviously, plays primarily shortstop.

 

1

Dr D's picture

Dr D

"Miller is a lot like Kyle Seager, but actually ahead of where he was at the same point."

He brought up the comp at his own initiative during a recent TV game. Added something to the effect of Miller having the makeup, to the Nth degree, and it's pretty obvious that Miller is their guy at SS.

What a tremendous article Spec. Eerie stats parallels indeed, and getting the Spectometer lens on it is Frrresh ...

2

Filtered HTML

  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Allowed HTML tags: <a> <em> <strong> <cite> <blockquote> <ul> <ol> <li> <i> <b> <img> <table> <tr> <td> <th> <div> <strong> <p> <br> <u>
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.
By submitting this form, you accept the Mollom privacy policy.

Shoutbox

Please log in or create an account to post shouts.
bsrDept of Who Knew? Per Wikipedia: Benjamin Isaac Broussard (born September 24, 1976) is an American professional baseball first baseman. He is currently a musician, and still plays baseball in Mexico City, Mexico, for the Diablos Rojos and the Long Island Ducks in the Atlantic League of Professional Baseball ... Broussard has released two full-length music albums. The first, his self-titled album, was released in 2005. The second, Renovated, was released in 2009. He was also featured on the album, Oh Say Can You Sing?, a compilation of different Major League Baseball players singing their favorite songs. On that album Broussard sang U2's With or Without You. He is now a full-time musician.2 hours 30 min ago
Bat571vR ABs = 2144 hours 23 min ago
Bat571Now, about platoon splits. Some guys don't seem to have them. Patrick Kivlehan in 71 G at Jackson, covering 259 ABs - Overall = .317/.389/.510/.899, vL = .311/.392/.511/.903, vR = .318/.389/.509/.898. That is the closest I have ever seen for that many ABs (vL = 45, vR =24). He has become some kinda hittter! Walking 10.2% and K'ing 18.8% as well. Can you really ask for more?4 hours 24 min ago
Bat571When he first came up, he was able to do it - I'm hoping he can rediscover how.4 hours 56 min ago
Bat571We'll just have to see what Mr. Ackley does when pitchers adjust. When he was pulling off, the books was away,away. Now that he's staying on the ball and obviously seeing it well, they'll start busting him and moving his feet. If HoJo can get him through that by helping him keep his hands in and scorch a few down the RF line while not pulling off, then the skills change will start to show - he'll see the ball more consistently and his walk rate should increase and his Ks go back down to his minors numbers. IF ......5 hours 4 min ago
Bat571Matt - I think we are seeing the same things - by keeping his head still and his shoulder closed, he IS seeing the ball better. If he CAN continue to do so, then it will start to show up as a skills change. It hasn't yet, but as he gains confidence, it either will, or he'll start pulling off again and the ball will no longer be seen as clearly, and he'll go back to OPSing .640.5 hours 19 min ago
bsrPut it this way, you can be a snake businessman and get results, and in a competitive field like pro sports...(most) sins will be forgiven for a winner. Nothing terribly wrong with this type of behavior for a F500 exec, it's not like Jack is an ambassador negotiating peace in the Middle East here. But when you don't get results to outweigh the bad behavior...it doesn't look so good.5 hours 25 min ago
bsrWeren't the Yanks all upset a few years back about Z backing out of the Lee for Montero deal last minute when he got Smoak on the line from TX? It's the same snakey behavior as this article is citing. I mean, you can view this all as a vast conspiracy / gamesmanship attempt against the downtrodden M's...or you can take it at face value and see it as Z being called out repeatedly by many sources for being a bush league executive. (With both his peers and his subordinates -- sure he might be a good drafter but that's not about relationships.)5 hours 31 min ago
bsrI don't read the Rosenthal article as an indictment of the ownership group, I read it as a critique of Z. "Rival executives" know what any Mariner GM has to deal with behind the scenes, the situation has been the same for decades. If they thought Z was a decent guy making his best effort to overcome well-known challenges, I can't see why they'd sling mud at him publicly like this. I think we are seeing another indicator, in line w/ Baker's reporting, that Z is an unliked guy and a weak GM. Of course the piece could be off base, but OTOH when's the last time we heard anything good about Z? Where there's multiple plumes of smoke...5 hours 43 min ago
SABR MattLOL...interesting how we came to opposite conclusions even though we're both seeing the same guy and both encouraged with the better looking ABs right now. I'm just not seeing big changes in the component stats that would suggest that there's a real skills change in the works. Makes me think he's seeing the ball real well right now but whatever mechanical changes he's made aren't likely to last.5 hours 45 min ago
Bat571Is that going to be enough to carry lineup weight from LF? Well, he's still better suited in my mind to 2B, but Cano answers that question both ways - Ackley won't displace him, but Robbie hits so well he gives some room for a lighter bat in LF.5 hours 59 min ago
Bat571Ackley: the hitting is real - he looks like he did when he first came up and was putting up decent numbers, before Wedge tried changing him. Whether it's sustainable is a whole different matter. he's tinkered so much with things since he came up, I'm surprised he's back striding into the ball and getting solid, shoulder-driven wood on it. I'd say if he can keep his focus for a few more weeks, pitchers will start pounding him and we'll see if he can keep his shoulder in still. If so, he may be able to be the hitter he should be, a doubles, gap-to-gap hitter with good speed; a perfect #2 or a #6-7 to keep rallies going. A hitter in AAA threatening his job would, in my opinion, help him keep his focus and get him to keep attacking the ball. But HoJo seems to have gotten into his head enough I have some hope.5 hours 59 min ago
SABR Matthis secondary stats haven't changed much from prior seasons. His LD% is down but his ISO is back to career norms rather than paltry like last year. His plate discipline stats are normal for him except that he's generally swinging more often. His walk rate is down with no change in K rate. In the most recent month or so, his K/BB is 12/2 (that's not good) and his ISO is a normal .115 or so. The main change is BABIP, which is normally around .310 for his career but is over .450 during the hot streak with no change in LD%. I'm gonna say...not real.6 hours 17 min ago
gulpThing about Byrd is not only that extra 8 mil when he&amp;#039;s 38, but the Phillies want Maurer or Erasmo AND Guerrero or Wilson for him.... And Byrd kinda seems like a Honda Civic when the gas light comes on... You know you&amp;#039;ve got a little driving time left, but don&amp;#039;t get on the highway6 hours 32 min ago
GLSQuestion for anyone that would like to venture an opinion: is the recent Ackley hitting streak real and sustainable? What's going on there?6 hours 33 min ago
DaddyOYes, YES! There are prospects about to die on the vine if we don't use them for SOME-thing.8 hours 33 min ago
Bat571And the thought of Souza in AAA may help the concentration of Ackley.8 hours 54 min ago
Bat571I'm hoping the first move is Franklin or Noriega+CSmith for Souza. I can see him as the kind of player that could come up in September as an older prospect who takes his chance and runs with it.8 hours 55 min ago
GLSThe Marlon Byrd deal ought to be doable. Even with the risk of the extra year, it's only 1 year at 8 million. That's hardly an albatross. And if it keeps you in he hunt this year without having to give up anything good, it seems like a worthy expenditure.9 hours 13 min ago
Bat571Yes, Ice, we need to get past the s*&*t and trade with somebody before Franklin, Marte, Noriega, etc. lose all shininess.9 hours 26 min ago