What the Three Numbers Mean

An attempt to make things more intuitive

After putting all the stats together for this series, I realized that (though they made sense for me to calculate) they weren't necessarily "user-friendly."  The toughest thing was that -- for the stats based on the "necessary conversion rate" of "random-y" balls-in-play to "random-y" singles -- "low" was good for hitters and "high" was good for pitchers, which is completely counterintuitive to what we are used to.

That, plus the "Plate Skills" metric (indicator of OBP) was on a completely different scale from the "Production" metric (indicator of SLG).

So, what I have done is converted both those key stats to a scale that is intended to be similar to OPS+, which which most folks are familiar.

The key difference, however, is that for OPS+ the score of "100" is league average.  For prospects, the "100" score is what I have found to be roughly the minimum score for guys with a shot at the majors.

Therefore, for Plate Skills ("Hitter's +/-"), instead of "0" = "100" (which would indicate minor-league average), I set "+1.5" = "100" since that is "roughly genuine prospect minimum."

For Production ("Plausibility Index"), the average was more in the .360 range (higher some years), but I set "100" at .330, which is, again, about as high as one can get and be a reasonable year for an MLB prospect.

The third number is not initially as intuitive, but it is the composite of the two other numbers.  It is determined the same way that OPS+ can be determined from OBP+ and SLG+.

For example, Ichiro's career OBP+ (his OBP/leage avg. OBP) is 112 (.365/.325).  His career SLG+ is 101 (.419/.414).  Those two numbers contribute to his career OPS+ of 113.  It is "+12" plus "+1" that gets you the "+13."   The "100s" don't really matter ... it is the "plus" or the "minus" that matters.

Another example:  Brendon Ryan ... OBP+ of 95 (.306/.323) and SLG+ of 80 (.327/.407).  So that's "-5" and "-20" for a total of "-25", which produces an OPS+ of 75.

So you can always get the third number from the first two, but not by adding or averaging, but by combining the differences from 100 and then taking that combination as a difference from 100.

***

That gives us a series of three numbers: For MLB players ... OBP+, SLG+, OPS+.  For prospects ... Plate Skills, Production, Composite.

***

How to interpret, using examples from MLB vets:

Excellent at everything:  Prince Fielder ... 117-127-144

Not quite as excellent at everything:  David Wright ... 114-120-134

Plate skills, less power:  John Olerud ... 118-111-129

Fewer plate skills, more power:  Giancarlo Stanton ... 106-134-140

Fewer plate skills, not as much power:  Mark Reynolds ... 98-111-109

***

Here are the career scores from the 2012 Mariners veterans:

Miguel Olivo ... 83-100-83 (terrible plate skills, decent power, but not enough to make up for it)

Brendan Ryan ... 95-80-75 (tolerable plate skills, no power, better have a good glove)

Ichiro ... 112-101-113 (his career SLG is a point higher than Olivo's)

Chone Figgins ... 105-87-92 (career totals reflect a classic middle-infielder/leadoff profile, but it didn't happen in Seattle)

Franklin Gutierrez ... 95-94-89 (not bad for a gold-glove CF, really ... if he can stay on the field)

***

OK, I hope that gives you a sense of how the series of numbers works.  If one of the numbers is below 100, then the other number ought to make up for it ... or you'd better have a really good glove.

And for prospects, the 100 is set at the minimal for a guy with a real shot, so 102-100-102 (Kevin Rivers, at age 23 in Low-A) only indicates that he's on the fringe, even if he weren't old for his level (and I'm a Rivers fan).

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moethedogthe return to the interesting LoMo: I've written several times before that the most interesting Logan Morrison was the one he was as a rookie. he was an OBP 1B then, not really a slugger. Rookie numbers = .283-.390-.447. The Slg% was inflated beyond reason as he has 20 doubles and 7 trips in 287 BA's. In the last 28 days, Morrison is a .289-.379-.356 hitter. He's has 3 XB's in 103 PA's. But this is an interesting Morrison to bat near the top of the lineup. His rookie year he bated 2nd almost exclusively. Vs. RHP he is OPS'ing .809....he was at .797 in '10.2 months 1 week ago
moethedogI always said I liked that Morrison better. I would still get him some vL help in the form of Guti or Romero. Guti isn't the runaway that you might imagine....if you're going to platoon him. He's OPS'ing .776 vL in Tacoma with 1 HR in 51 AB's. Romero is at .895 and 4 in 67. (Montero, now blocked it appears is at .980 and 4 in 73: O'Malley is at .865 with a .404 OBP...He's better than Bloomquist). Guti is hitting RHP very well, but the LF position may be a platoon only deal right now. vR, you go with Trumbo, LoMo, Cruz and Smith......2 months 1 week ago
DaddyOAha. Things begin to add up. Jack is determined to keep Ackley. Brings in Weeks so somebody understands what he's going through. McClendon know that. (jk)2 months 1 week ago
moethedogWeeks and Ackley were both #2 picks.2 months 1 week ago
rick82Weeks must be real good in the clubhouse. I didn't realize what a young phenom he was, although he was a super high pick I figured he had a typical minors experience. But he skipped high A, going from the Midwest League at age 20 (and a callup in September to the big club) to AA at age 21, then half a season in AAA before settling in as the Brewer second baseman. Only 937 PAs in the minors, a hundred or so fewer than Ackley.2 months 1 week ago
GrumpyAckley rather.2 months 1 week ago
GrumpyIf he gets hurt plug-in actually back in and call up Jones.2 months 1 week ago
GrumpyYes I can't imagine what the holdup is on Gutierrez.2 months 1 week ago
MtGrizzlyCrappy thing is, there's an extreme shortage of decent catchers in the game right now. Tough and expensive position to upgrade.2 months 1 week ago
rick82Over that last week, Zunino has an .000 BA with a .214 OBP. 3:4 BB/K ratio.2 months 1 week ago
SABR MattTerry...Rodney is demoted...Smith is the closer now. Only 3 blown saves before Rodney disappeared. That's pretty fast.2 months 1 week ago
phxterryPersonally, I think that GMZ had a very good off-season, plugging several major holes with Cruz, Smith, and Happ -- without significantly down-grading the talent pool. I would fault him for being slow to react to correct deficiencies as the season has developed; however, he did make a nice trade for a back-up catcher when Sucre flopped at the plate. For me, most of the fault is with the manager and players. The Pencil's inherent stubbornness for playing the wrong players (his man-crush on Almonte has been replaced with his love for the FRE) has not been offset this year with the magical touch he had in the bullpen last year. I reckon that the Pencil's use of Rodney and Farquar is, by itself, the difference between the current record and .500.2 months 1 week ago
Gordon GrossLOL or what Matt said. Carlos is OPSing a thousand in the minors this year. Montero: .830 (and blocked by Trumbo), Marte: .830 (and injured), Romero: .820 (and currently injured), Taylor: .800 and back in AAA for a reason, Kivlehan: .760 with no walks, Jones: .690, DJ .575 in AA (!!!) and then Dario Pizzano who probably needs to move up to AAA with his current .850, good eye and slight lack of power - which is another great reason to promote Guti.2 months 1 week ago
Gordon GrossCorrea is a future monster. The Mariners were hoping Buxton or Correa got to them in that draft, and Zunino was the consolation prize. When his offense comes around in 2018 he's gonna be a great future prize - for the Yankees. Last night was Kivlehan's first walk in 2 weeks. He's hitting for power now (.305 average with a .625 SLG over his last 3 weeks) but the 4:22 eye over that time frame isn't great. I still don't call up Kivlehan, and Marte is on the DL at the moment. Montero has had his spot taken by Trumbo. That leaves Guti, who is posting a .326 /.422 /.533 /.956 line this year in AAA with a .6 batting eye. He can come back up aaaannny day now and take Ackley's spot. DFA Weeks if that makes you feel better, since they're both righties. We need Guti's D out there and his offense CAN'T be as bad as everyday Dustin.2 months 1 week ago
SABR Mattmoe...we don't have anyone with Correa's pedigree knocking down the door. Our AAA hopefuls are MLB vet retreads, guys who are hitting .210, and guys with K/BBs larger than 5.2 months 1 week ago
DaddyOIt is a little known fact that The Beatles had mystic powers, and forseeing the dreadful lot of Mariners fans in 2015 composed this song to capture their mood: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jzxdApFBBGQ2 months 1 week ago
moethedogA day off and a plane trip east......The perfect time to make some roster moves. Man, Houston just called up their 20 year old SS, after a handful of AAA games.....because he's better than their other guys. Exactly what we should be doing.2 months 1 week ago
DaddyODay off. A vacation from Mariners Fan Misery.2 months 1 week ago
MtGrizzlyThey like Weeks for some reason.2 months 1 week ago