What the Three Numbers Mean

An attempt to make things more intuitive

After putting all the stats together for this series, I realized that (though they made sense for me to calculate) they weren't necessarily "user-friendly."  The toughest thing was that -- for the stats based on the "necessary conversion rate" of "random-y" balls-in-play to "random-y" singles -- "low" was good for hitters and "high" was good for pitchers, which is completely counterintuitive to what we are used to.

That, plus the "Plate Skills" metric (indicator of OBP) was on a completely different scale from the "Production" metric (indicator of SLG).

So, what I have done is converted both those key stats to a scale that is intended to be similar to OPS+, which which most folks are familiar.

The key difference, however, is that for OPS+ the score of "100" is league average.  For prospects, the "100" score is what I have found to be roughly the minimum score for guys with a shot at the majors.

Therefore, for Plate Skills ("Hitter's +/-"), instead of "0" = "100" (which would indicate minor-league average), I set "+1.5" = "100" since that is "roughly genuine prospect minimum."

For Production ("Plausibility Index"), the average was more in the .360 range (higher some years), but I set "100" at .330, which is, again, about as high as one can get and be a reasonable year for an MLB prospect.

The third number is not initially as intuitive, but it is the composite of the two other numbers.  It is determined the same way that OPS+ can be determined from OBP+ and SLG+.

For example, Ichiro's career OBP+ (his OBP/leage avg. OBP) is 112 (.365/.325).  His career SLG+ is 101 (.419/.414).  Those two numbers contribute to his career OPS+ of 113.  It is "+12" plus "+1" that gets you the "+13."   The "100s" don't really matter ... it is the "plus" or the "minus" that matters.

Another example:  Brendon Ryan ... OBP+ of 95 (.306/.323) and SLG+ of 80 (.327/.407).  So that's "-5" and "-20" for a total of "-25", which produces an OPS+ of 75.

So you can always get the third number from the first two, but not by adding or averaging, but by combining the differences from 100 and then taking that combination as a difference from 100.

***

That gives us a series of three numbers: For MLB players ... OBP+, SLG+, OPS+.  For prospects ... Plate Skills, Production, Composite.

***

How to interpret, using examples from MLB vets:

Excellent at everything:  Prince Fielder ... 117-127-144

Not quite as excellent at everything:  David Wright ... 114-120-134

Plate skills, less power:  John Olerud ... 118-111-129

Fewer plate skills, more power:  Giancarlo Stanton ... 106-134-140

Fewer plate skills, not as much power:  Mark Reynolds ... 98-111-109

***

Here are the career scores from the 2012 Mariners veterans:

Miguel Olivo ... 83-100-83 (terrible plate skills, decent power, but not enough to make up for it)

Brendan Ryan ... 95-80-75 (tolerable plate skills, no power, better have a good glove)

Ichiro ... 112-101-113 (his career SLG is a point higher than Olivo's)

Chone Figgins ... 105-87-92 (career totals reflect a classic middle-infielder/leadoff profile, but it didn't happen in Seattle)

Franklin Gutierrez ... 95-94-89 (not bad for a gold-glove CF, really ... if he can stay on the field)

***

OK, I hope that gives you a sense of how the series of numbers works.  If one of the numbers is below 100, then the other number ought to make up for it ... or you'd better have a really good glove.

And for prospects, the 100 is set at the minimal for a guy with a real shot, so 102-100-102 (Kevin Rivers, at age 23 in Low-A) only indicates that he's on the fringe, even if he weren't old for his level (and I'm a Rivers fan).

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SABR Mattthe speculation is that the teams that set up private workouts are the ones who are most interested. Take that with a grain of salt...but thus far, those teams have been the Mariners, Yankees, Reds, and one other team.30 min 33 sec ago
mojicianWhat a great idea: To have Castillo take bp at the Safe instead of trying to imagine how he might hit at the Safe.53 min 9 sec ago
SABR MattMariners have a private workout with Rusney Castillo this week. Mariners also very much in on Jon Lester. Rumors still swirling about Kemp. Mariners in on a number of lower level targets. I'm not sure there is a player on the market who the Mariners are NOT in on.58 min 42 sec ago
mojicianCorrection: Wednesday July 30th may be disputed sixth day not August 5th.1 hour 30 min ago
mojicianTo add to the confusion, it is unclear whether pre-season camp started Thursday or Friday. Early reporting said that it started Friday, but sixth day reporting consensus is that camp started Thursday, with a mandatory team meeting of some sort.1 hour 48 min ago
mojicianEveryone agrees that after six days @MoneyLynch will be hit with some serious fines, but there is much dispute as to when the sixth day tolls. CBS and King 5 are reporting that the sixth day tolls on Tuesday based on the fact that Tuesday is the sixth day of pre season camp. You heard it on SSI that the sixth day may actually be Wednesday. You probably don't count the start of pre season camp in the sixth day computation. Six days after Thursday, the start of the pre season camp, is Wednesday, August Fifth. Lynch may report into camp tomorrow morning and only be hit with comparatively minor fines of $30,000 per day, which is a living wage in Oklahoma. Or not.1 hour 54 min ago
mojicianSixth day problems: If a player commits a Forfeitable Breach resulting in his absence for six preseason days after the start of training camp, the player may be required to forfeit up to 15% of his Forfeitable Salary Allocations, and up to an addition­ al 1% of his Forfeitable Salary Allocations for each additional preseason day missed after the six days, up to a maximum of 25% of his Forfeitable Salary Allocations. A player who misses five days or less of training camp may not be subject to forfeiture2 hours 1 min ago
mojicianIf the Seahawks went to court, they might be able to sue Lynch for damages relating to his strike as well as to void the contract. Could you imagine all the Lynch jerseys that are not going to sell because of the hold out?2 hours 15 min ago
Bat571DJ left the game Saturday with a "wrist contusion" apparently from a fielding play. He had handled the last two plays in the inning.2 hours 20 min ago
mojicianOf course, the court remedy of voiding the whole contract would only be desirable if Lynch's contract was burdensome to the Seahawks. The Hawks can quickly be rid of a striking Lynch without court by trading him to some other team for a football prospect. It is probable that plenty of teams would take a flier on Lynch in hopes of sweet talking him back to dat action, or by granting him a concession on his contract.2 hours 20 min ago
mojicianUnder the NFL, Player's union collective bargaining agreement, strikes and hold outs are strictly forbidden, and teams can go straight to court and bypass NFL arbitration law if there is a strike. I think the Seahawks could go to court and have a good case for voiding Lynch's entire contract for material breach if he continues his hold out into the regular season.2 hours 25 min ago
benihanaSore wrist - Ryan Divish ‏@RyanDivish "People asking about DJ Peterson being pulled from his game with Jackson. @CHarris731 says he took a ball off the wrist in the field."2 hours 36 min ago
GLSDJ has been out of the Jackson lineup for a few days now. He was pulled after 1 AB on Saturday. Anyone know what happened?3 hours 20 min ago
Gordon GrossKivlehan is 3rd in the Southern League in ops. Behind some dude named bryant, and another good prospect in Lamb. He's getting better every week. I get mad at the Ms for not moving DJ to first... but maybe that's because Pat won't let em. I still think he should be in the OF though. Nice having system bats, I won't lie. Just don't rush em.5 hours 42 min ago
moethedogMLBTR has it that the Cubs rejected a Yankees bid on Ruggiano. Initeresting. Are they looking at a better bid by someone else? Could be. He's a RHB OF'er worth getting. Franklin might do it straight up.6 hours 58 min ago
bsrDept of Who Knew? Per Wikipedia: Benjamin Isaac Broussard (born September 24, 1976) is an American professional baseball first baseman. He is currently a musician, and still plays baseball in Mexico City, Mexico, for the Diablos Rojos and the Long Island Ducks in the Atlantic League of Professional Baseball ... Broussard has released two full-length music albums. The first, his self-titled album, was released in 2005. The second, Renovated, was released in 2009. He was also featured on the album, Oh Say Can You Sing?, a compilation of different Major League Baseball players singing their favorite songs. On that album Broussard sang U2's With or Without You. He is now a full-time musician.14 hours 42 min ago
Bat571vR ABs = 21416 hours 35 min ago
Bat571Now, about platoon splits. Some guys don't seem to have them. Patrick Kivlehan in 71 G at Jackson, covering 259 ABs - Overall = .317/.389/.510/.899, vL = .311/.392/.511/.903, vR = .318/.389/.509/.898. That is the closest I have ever seen for that many ABs (vL = 45, vR =24). He has become some kinda hittter! Walking 10.2% and K'ing 18.8% as well. Can you really ask for more?16 hours 36 min ago
Bat571When he first came up, he was able to do it - I'm hoping he can rediscover how.17 hours 8 min ago
Bat571We'll just have to see what Mr. Ackley does when pitchers adjust. When he was pulling off, the books was away,away. Now that he's staying on the ball and obviously seeing it well, they'll start busting him and moving his feet. If HoJo can get him through that by helping him keep his hands in and scorch a few down the RF line while not pulling off, then the skills change will start to show - he'll see the ball more consistently and his walk rate should increase and his Ks go back down to his minors numbers. IF ......17 hours 17 min ago