What the Three Numbers Mean

An attempt to make things more intuitive

After putting all the stats together for this series, I realized that (though they made sense for me to calculate) they weren't necessarily "user-friendly."  The toughest thing was that -- for the stats based on the "necessary conversion rate" of "random-y" balls-in-play to "random-y" singles -- "low" was good for hitters and "high" was good for pitchers, which is completely counterintuitive to what we are used to.

That, plus the "Plate Skills" metric (indicator of OBP) was on a completely different scale from the "Production" metric (indicator of SLG).

So, what I have done is converted both those key stats to a scale that is intended to be similar to OPS+, which which most folks are familiar.

The key difference, however, is that for OPS+ the score of "100" is league average.  For prospects, the "100" score is what I have found to be roughly the minimum score for guys with a shot at the majors.

Therefore, for Plate Skills ("Hitter's +/-"), instead of "0" = "100" (which would indicate minor-league average), I set "+1.5" = "100" since that is "roughly genuine prospect minimum."

For Production ("Plausibility Index"), the average was more in the .360 range (higher some years), but I set "100" at .330, which is, again, about as high as one can get and be a reasonable year for an MLB prospect.

The third number is not initially as intuitive, but it is the composite of the two other numbers.  It is determined the same way that OPS+ can be determined from OBP+ and SLG+.

For example, Ichiro's career OBP+ (his OBP/leage avg. OBP) is 112 (.365/.325).  His career SLG+ is 101 (.419/.414).  Those two numbers contribute to his career OPS+ of 113.  It is "+12" plus "+1" that gets you the "+13."   The "100s" don't really matter ... it is the "plus" or the "minus" that matters.

Another example:  Brendon Ryan ... OBP+ of 95 (.306/.323) and SLG+ of 80 (.327/.407).  So that's "-5" and "-20" for a total of "-25", which produces an OPS+ of 75.

So you can always get the third number from the first two, but not by adding or averaging, but by combining the differences from 100 and then taking that combination as a difference from 100.

***

That gives us a series of three numbers: For MLB players ... OBP+, SLG+, OPS+.  For prospects ... Plate Skills, Production, Composite.

***

How to interpret, using examples from MLB vets:

Excellent at everything:  Prince Fielder ... 117-127-144

Not quite as excellent at everything:  David Wright ... 114-120-134

Plate skills, less power:  John Olerud ... 118-111-129

Fewer plate skills, more power:  Giancarlo Stanton ... 106-134-140

Fewer plate skills, not as much power:  Mark Reynolds ... 98-111-109

***

Here are the career scores from the 2012 Mariners veterans:

Miguel Olivo ... 83-100-83 (terrible plate skills, decent power, but not enough to make up for it)

Brendan Ryan ... 95-80-75 (tolerable plate skills, no power, better have a good glove)

Ichiro ... 112-101-113 (his career SLG is a point higher than Olivo's)

Chone Figgins ... 105-87-92 (career totals reflect a classic middle-infielder/leadoff profile, but it didn't happen in Seattle)

Franklin Gutierrez ... 95-94-89 (not bad for a gold-glove CF, really ... if he can stay on the field)

***

OK, I hope that gives you a sense of how the series of numbers works.  If one of the numbers is below 100, then the other number ought to make up for it ... or you'd better have a really good glove.

And for prospects, the 100 is set at the minimal for a guy with a real shot, so 102-100-102 (Kevin Rivers, at age 23 in Low-A) only indicates that he's on the fringe, even if he weren't old for his level (and I'm a Rivers fan).

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Illustration adapted from Creative Commons

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rick82Love it, Bat!5 hours 12 min ago
Bat571luckily Miller and Taylor both can fit in place of Ryan, so we can use it for a while. Take that, Tinker, Evers, and Chance!5 hours 20 min ago
OBFAh, Never mind, I should have googled it first: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0OP5EnaaYjQ5 hours 23 min ago
Bat571another rhythmic ditty -- What three names make Josh Hamilton choke: Franklin-to-Ryan-to-Smoak5 hours 25 min ago
OBFI think I am missing something... why Funky Cold?5 hours 27 min ago
Bat571MEDINA!........Funky Cold......MEDINA!........Funky Cold.........MEDINA! Hey, you can get a real rhythm going there!5 hours 42 min ago
rick82Dave Sims has been using it...but not recently. Maybe he'll go back to it.5 hours 43 min ago
DaddyOWhen the M's failed to tack on an insurance run while leading 2-1, and when Wilhelmsen came to the mound to start the 8th, I expected the M's to lose 3-2. Pujols' HR, of course, did nothing to dispel that, but the Angels failed to capitalize in the 9th, and Mariners got a huge double from Kyle Seager in the 10th to eke out an unexpected win. I'll take it.5 hours 45 min ago
SABR Mattaw CRUD...that is WAY better rick...why didn't I think of that??5 hours 49 min ago
Bat571Morales Seager Saunders Smoak Ibanez all look like they/re coming around after some tough days with the slumps. And the DPs were great!5 hours 49 min ago
rick82What? You don't like Funky Cold?5 hours 49 min ago
SABR MattI have to agree with OBF in re: the bunt. Ryan is such a bad hitter that the run expectancy of a bunt call is probably higher than the run expectancy of a swing away call even if Ryan only gets down half of his bunts.5 hours 50 min ago
SABR MattBecause Medina sounds kinda like medicine...how about "The Doctor"...and he makes house calls.5 hours 51 min ago
SABR MattCrisp bullpen usage by Wedge...couldn't have done it better myself. Voervis Medina is very good when he is locating his breaking ball.5 hours 52 min ago
OBFDANG! Nice Job Medina! Some one better come up with a catchy closer nickname for him QUICK!5 hours 52 min ago
phxterryGreat win - nice job of managing the bull pen by Wedgie.5 hours 53 min ago
OBFTerry, be mad at Z for having Ryan be the only SS on the team, but don't get mad at Wedge for trying to win a game with what he's got...5 hours 53 min ago
Bat571One of the best wins of the year! So satisfying!5 hours 53 min ago
OBFSorry for all the typos and GO MEDINA!5 hours 55 min ago
SABR MattLOL...same pitch but 3 mph slower and Pujols pops it up5 hours 56 min ago